JD.com stocks could move 9% in the US on Thursday. Here’s why.

• E-commerce giant set to release earnings before US markets open March 6th
  
  
• Analysts predict record revenues, but thinner margins
  
  
• Investors concerned about JD.com’s new ventures amid e-commerce price war
  
  
• JD.com forecasted to move 9% up/down when US markets reopen Thursday
  
  
• Wall Street expects 27% more potential upside for JD.com by March 2026

JD.com is about to unveil its latest quarterly earnings.

This highly-anticipated report by this Chinese e-commerce giant is due before US markets open on Thursday, March 6th.

First, here are some key 4Q figures, in Chinese Yuan (CNY) terms, as forecasted by analysts:

• Revenue: 332.4 billion.
  (8.6% year-on-year growth)
   
• EPS (earnings per share) – adjusted: 6.19
  (18.1% year-on-year drop)
   
• Net income: 9.3 billion
   
• Operating margin - adjusted: 2.7%

Beyond those numbers, here are 3 key themes that markets will be paying pay close attention to during this upcoming announcement:

1) Record revenues expected

JD.com is set to post its highest-ever quarterly revenue of over 332.4 billion yuan, thanks to government efforts to boost domestic consumption.

On top of that, an 8.6% year-on-year rise in quarterly revenue, if official, would also mark its fastest revenue growth in 9 quarters.

Of course, as we know, this financial quarter will also include sales figures from the Singles’ Day shopping festival, for which the company has already reported:

• a 20% year-on-year growth in shoppers
  
  
• 3.8 times more, year-on-year, live-streaming orders

2) Boost from logistics, more brands/sellers, and value-added services?

The company has also enlarged its JD Logistics operations while making it more efficient. Such measures are expected to yield positive effects on the company’s overall profits.

JD.com has also been enticing more third-party sellers and global brands onto its platforms, which could enhance economies of scale for its logistical arm i.e. another potential boost to profits.

Furthermore, JD.com has rolled out value-added services, such as installation and after-sales support, which the company hopes can offer additional revenue streams.

3) Thinner margins due to non-e-commerce investments?

Beyond the historic top-line revenue figure, markets are also set to pay close attention to that final bullet point listed above: operating margin.

This is especially crucial, given JD.com’s efforts to diversify from its e-commerce business.

For instance, JD.com is looking to expand its local service businesses such as food delivery (JD Takeaway), which was just launched last month (Feb 2025). 

Also note back in 2022, the company ventured into ride hailing as well.

Although the company has refrained from splurging the cash to entice ride-hailing customers via its mobile app, it did slash commissions for its food-delivery business to zero for 1 year.

And there’s more.

Recently, JD.com reportedly renewed its interest in acquiring Ceconomy – a German electronics retailer, having previously expressed its interest in late-2023.

Ceconomy operates about 1,000 stores across Europe, featuring the MediaMarkt and Saturn brands. These physical stores could provide a delivery network for JD.com’s global logistics unit.

Ultimately, all these new undertakings could dilute some of JD.com’s near-term profitability, while waiting for these new investments to eventually bear fruit.

In short, markets are eager to find out if JD.com’s new ventures are eroding its competitiveness against its major peers – Alibaba and PDD – amid an e-commerce price war.

For context and comparison, these are the operating margins for Chinese internet giants:

• JD.com: around 3%
  
  
• Meituan: 9.5%
  
  
• Alibaba: 12.8%
  
  
• Baidu: 19.7%
  
  
• PDD: 28.3%
  
  
• Tencent: 30.8%

SOURCE: Bloomberg

Short-term volatility, long-term gains?

Chinese tech stocks have certainly enjoyed a stellar start to the year, following the DeepSeek-induced AI-mania.

At the time of writing, JD.com’s US-listed shares have climbed 18.1% so far in 2025.

Still, this week’s earnings announcement could have a large influence over whether JD.com can build on, or dilute, those double-digit, year-to-date gains.

As long as JD.com continues to demonstrate its earnings prowess, that should enable its shares to fulfill their forecasted upside.

JD.com is expected to climb 27% over the next 12 months, potentially breaching US$51 by March 2026, as forecasted by Wall Street experts.

But first, brace for a potential 9% move up/down during the US stock market session this Thursday, in the hours following JD.com’s upcoming earnings release.

Potential Scenarios

• A 9% move to the upside would see JD.com’s US-listed stocks soaring towards US$45 to a 5-month high, provided its Q4 results and earnings outlook exceed expectations.
  
  From a technical perspective, such a surge could be translated as a bullish signal, as prices would’ve broken critical resistance around $42.40 and also the downward-slopping, upper trendline from the October 2024 cycle high.
  
   
• A 9% move to the downside would see JD.com’s US-listed stocks sinking below its 100-day simple moving average (SMA) towards US$37.50, if its results and outlook disappoint markets.