Bitcoin rebounds ahead of US CPI report

• Bitcoin ↑ 6% on Tuesday, still ↓ 13% YTD
• Prices have dropped as much as 30% from all-time high 
• Bitcoin hit by macro concerns and Trump disappointment
• Over past year US CPI triggered moves of ↑ 4.3% & ↓ 4.0%
• Technical levels: 200-day SMA & $77,000

Bitcoin jumped over 6% on Tuesday after sliding to its lowest point since early November 2024. 

Nevertheless, it’s been a rough month for the “OG” crypto due to risk aversion.

Note: Bitcoin has dropped as much as 10% since the start of March.

Trump’s trade war and the possible impacts on the US economy have left investors jittery - hitting Bitcoin, global equities, and even the US dollar. 

Current month-to-date performance:

• Bitcoin: -3% 
• US500: -5.7%
• NAS100: -7%
• USDInd: -3.7% 

On Monday, Bitcoin ETFs saw $278 million worth of outflows – adding to the massive $409 million seen last Friday amid disappointment with the plans for a crypto strategic reserve. If caution remains a key theme, this could spell more losses for Bitcoin despite the recent rebound. 

Looking at the weekly charts, Bitcoin remains under pressure – shedding as much as 30% from its all-time high at $109,461.18.

On the macro front, Bitcoin is likely to be influenced by the US CPI report on Wednesday 12^th March. 

Signs of cooling price pressures may bolster expectations around lower US interest rates.

Note: Over the past year, the US CPI report has triggered upside moves of as much as 4.3% or declines of 4.0% in a 6-hour window post-release.

Global trade developments and geopolitical risk could trigger additional volatility:

1. US-Ukraine peace talks in Saudi Arabia – Tuesday 11^th March.
2. US deadline to impose 25% steel and aluminum tariffs – Wednesday 12^th March.

Technical outlook

Prices are respecting a bearish channel on the daily charts with the candlesticks below the 21, 50, 100 and 200-day SMA. 

• A breakout above the 200-day SMA at $83,450 may push prices toward the 21-day SMA at $88,700 and $90,000.
• Should prices slip below $77,000, bears may target $72,500.